13 Research methods, statistics, critical review and evidence-based practice13.6 Economic analysis

13.6 Types of economic evaluation

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Cost-effectiveness plane

Interactive

Extra cost plotted against extra QALYs4 options plotted by their extra cost and extra quality-adjusted life years against usual care. At £20,000 per QALY, 1 of them fall below the threshold line.Dearer, betterDearer, worseCheaper, betterCheaper, worse£3,250£0−£3,250Extra QALYs per patient−0.08+0.081234
Below the threshold: worth funding (round marks)Above the threshold: not worth funding (square marks)
Threshold
£20,000 per QALYNICE usually considers £20,000 to £30,000 per QALY.
Worth funding
1 of 4
Illustrative figures, not taken from any published evaluation. Net monetary benefit is the threshold times the extra QALYs, less the extra cost.
OptionExtra costExtra QALYsICERNet monetary benefitVerdict
1. Group CBT vs usual care£1,500+0.06£25,000 per QALY−£300More effective, more costly. Buys health, but at more than the threshold is willing to pay.
2. Digital self-help vs GP follow-up−£300+0.02Dominant£700More effective, less costly. Dominant: more health for less money. Adopt it.
3. New antidepressant vs sertraline£2,500+0.05£50,000 per QALY−£1,500More effective, more costly. Buys health, but at more than the threshold is willing to pay.
4. Closing a day service£400−0.01Dominated−£600Less effective, more costly. Dominated: less health for more money. Reject it.

A negative ICER turns up in two opposite quadrants, so the ratio cannot decide anything on its own. South-east of the origin an option is dominant and always adopted; north-west it is dominated and always refused. In the south-west quadrant the rule reverses and a high ICER is good news, because the saving per QALY given up is larger than what the payer would have spent to gain one. Net monetary benefit of zero or more says the same thing in all four quadrants, which is why it is the safer test.

At £20,000 per QALY, group CBT (£25,000 per QALY) sits just above the line. Move the threshold to £30,000 and it becomes acceptable, while the new antidepressant (£50,000 per QALY) stays out. The digital option is dominant and the day-service closure dominated at any threshold.

Full and partial evaluations

  • A full economic evaluation compares at least two alternatives on both costs and consequences.

  • A partial evaluation lacks a comparator or leaves outcomes unpriced, so it cannot by itself show comparative value.

Partial design

What it lacks

Cost-of-illness study

An alternative and any priced health gain

Cost description

A comparator and an outcome

Cost-outcome description

A comparator

Efficacy or effectiveness evaluation

Any costs

The full evaluations

All four count costs the same way. They differ in how they handle outcomes.

Type

Outcome measured as

Result

Main limitation

Cost-minimisation

Shown or assumed equivalent, so only costs are compared

Which option costs less

A non-significant difference does not prove equivalence

Cost-effectiveness

One shared outcome in natural clinical units

Extra cost per extra unit of effect

It compares only interventions sharing that outcome

Cost-utility

Utility-weighted health, usually quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) or disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)

Cost per QALY gained

It depends on how health is measured and valued

Cost-benefit

Money, for costs and consequences alike

Net benefit or benefit-to-cost ratio

Putting money on health raises method and equity problems

Cost-minimisation analysis

  • Cost-minimisation analysis compares costs alone, whereas every other full evaluation requires outcomes to be measured.

  • Equivalence needs a prespecified, clinically acceptable range with the confidence interval inside both bounds, so failing to find a significant difference is not enough.

Equivalence holds only when the whole confidence interval lies inside both prespecified bounds (dashed), as for A and C; D is not significantly different yet crosses a bound, so it is not equivalent. Lakens, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Cost-effectiveness analysis

  • Natural units include cases avoided, remissions, admissions avoided and symptom-free days, and they are never converted to money.

  • Cost per depression-free day cannot be compared with cost per psychotic relapse avoided.

Cost-utility analysis

  • The QALY combines survival with preference-weighted quality of life, and its common unit lets results be set against treatments for other conditions.

  • The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) generally uses QALYs for this reason.

  • Cost-consequences analysis lists costs beside several separate outcomes and never combines them, whereas cost-utility analysis combines them into one measure.

The area under the quality of life curve is the QALYs, so the intervention adds area B by both raising quality of life and extending survival, combining the two into one measure. Chris Sampson, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Cost-benefit analysis

  • Because everything is in money, cost-benefit analysis can compare interventions with unlike outcomes on one scale.

  • A study whose final result is in money is a cost-benefit analysis, even if it measured QALYs along the way.

  • The benefit-to-cost ratio is monetised benefits divided by costs: above 1, benefits exceed costs, and below 1, costs exceed benefits.

  • In drug treatment, net benefit is costs before treatment minus costs after, less the cost of treatment, and it may be worthwhile in one subgroup and not another.

Incremental analysis

  • The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is the extra cost of an intervention over its comparator divided by the extra effect it produces.

  • The ICER is calculated as (cost of A minus cost of B) divided by (effect of A minus effect of B).

  • An average cost-effectiveness ratio looks at one arm alone, dividing that arm's total cost by its successful outcomes, whereas the ICER compares arms.

  • Incremental effectiveness is the difference in health outcome in natural units per unit time, such as bed days saved per patient per year. Figures in pounds belong to the cost side.

  • Total cost saving is the per-patient saving (bed days saved times unit cost), multiplied by the number analysed and divided by the years of follow-up.

These illustrative figures cover two years of treatment for schizophrenia.

Option

Cost per patient

QALYs

Relapses

Oral antipsychotic with standard follow-up

£8,400

1.10

0.70

Clozapine with haematological monitoring

£13,200

1.34

0.30

  • The extra £4,800 divided by 0.40 relapses avoided gives £12,000 per relapse avoided, which is a cost-effectiveness result.

  • The same £4,800 divided by 0.24 QALYs gained gives £20,000 per QALY, which is a cost-utility result.

The cost-effectiveness plane

On the incremental cost-effectiveness plane, north means dearer and east means more effective than the comparator.

Quadrant

New option is

Verdict

Southeast

Cheaper and more effective

It dominates, so no ratio is needed

Northeast

Dearer and more effective

Judge the ICER against a threshold, which NICE sets at £25,000 to £35,000 per QALY

Northwest

Dearer and less effective

It is dominated and discarded

Southwest

Cheaper and less effective

The saving is traded against health loss

The comparator sits at the origin, with north dearer and east more effective; the illustrative therapy costs £1,200 more for 0.06 more QALYs, an ICER of £20,000 per QALY, the same ratio as clozapine in the table. Drawn for the MRCPsychiatrist statistics course

Perspective and valuing outcomes

  • The perspective of an evaluation is defined by whose costs are counted.

  • A narrow perspective counts public health and social care budgets and leaves out productivity, informal care and out-of-pocket costs.

Method

How it values a health state

Standard gamble

It varies the probability p of full health against death (1 minus p) until the person is indifferent between the gamble and a certain chronic state

Time trade-off

It varies years of life instead of probability

Willingness to pay

A stated-preference method that asks the most money a person says they would give up for a health gain